The rally-intensive ground campaign: electioneering and party adaptation in Tanzania

Thesis

This thesis is about election campaigning in sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that the central feature of many African ground campaigns is the prominence assumed by the rally. Where aggregate rally attendance is high, ground campaigns are ‘rally-intensive’; this rally-intensiveness is key to understanding how parties electioneer and organise. These assertions complicate comparative typologies of election campaigns.

Part I examines under what circumstances ground campaigns become rally-intensive. It draws on historic studies of electioneering in both Western and African countries to show that campaigns became more rally-intensive after the proliferation of electronic amplification. Thereby, it illustrates that many rally-intensive campaigns emerged in the twentieth century and across continents. Next, it analyses Afrobarometer data to examine African rally attendance. It reveals that rising Internet, newspaper and television penetration reduces rally attendance. While this suggests that media penetration dampens rally attendance, there is evidence that other factors buoy it.

Part II examines electioneering in Tanzania. It analyses a survey conducted before and after the 2015 general election, and reveals some evidence that rallies have mobilisational and persuasive effects. Next, it draws on extensive participant observation of rallies and demonstrates that parties expend enormous efforts ‘producing’ rallies. Finally, it shows that canvassers alter who they contact in anticipation of who will attend rallies. Local actors’ roles in these tasks make them crucial auxiliaries in rally-intensive campaigns.

Part III uses qualitative evidence to demonstrate that Tanzanian parties have developed new, capital-intensive means of producing rallies. Inter-candidate and inter-party competition drove processes of rally capitalisation. Accordingly, parties fostered closer relationships with financiers to raise more funds. Thereby, the rally became a vehicle of party adaptation. These findings are instructive about party electioneering and organisation in Tanzania, but they are applicable by degrees wherever rally-intensive ground campaigns can be found, both in sub-Saharan Africa and further abroad.

Authors: Paget, D

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-qznyaqddj
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Keywords: Rally; Rallies
• Subjects: African studies; Politics; Political parties; Political communication; Election campaigning