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An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK General Election opinion polls

Abstract:

The opinion polls undertaken prior to the 2015 UK General Election under-estimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in survey research. In this paper, we assess the likely causes of the 2015 polling errors. We begin by setting out a formal account of the statistical methodol...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's version

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Publisher copy:
10.1111/rssa.12329

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Department:
Trinity College
Sturgis, P More by this author
Lauderdale, B More by this author
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Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A Journal website
Publication date:
2017-08-05
Acceptance date:
2017-08-31
DOI:
EISSN:
1467-985X
ISSN:
0964-1998
Pubs id:
pubs:724791
URN:
uri:ff7e0ee3-3d16-46f9-b77d-41b20f645392
UUID:
uuid:ff7e0ee3-3d16-46f9-b77d-41b20f645392
Local pid:
pubs:724791

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