The bumpy ride to electrification: knowledge and tools to accelerate the electrification of sub-Saharan Africa’s paratransit industry

Thesis

Paratransit is the primary mode of road transport in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 50 – 98% of trips in many major cities. With global trends in vehicle electrification and Africa’s role as a key destination for second-hand vehicles, paratransit electrification is inevitable. However, the scarcity of operational data for paratransit complicates the modeling of electrified transportation, hindering efficient planning and investment.

This thesis develops tools and knowledge aimed at enabling an accelerated transition to electrified paratransit systems in regions that lack electric paratransit vehicles. It first quantifies the intentions of paratransit owners and drivers to adopt electric vehicles. To do so, a structural equation model based on a novel theory of consumer behaviour is applied to a survey of 4,452 respondents. The findings inform an analysis of key technical and financial factors that affect vehicle performance and cost, including energy consumption, battery size, and payback period.

To estimate energy consumption, a methodology is developed to construct representative driving cycles that account for data transients. A kinetic model is applied to the paratransit driving cycle to estimate energy consumption and finds a rate of 0.55 kWh/km, which is validated against raw GPS tracking data. 0.55kWh/km leads to battery size requirements that are comparable to minibuses in other global markets, and an estimated payback period of eight years.

The thesis also explores the economic potential of hybrid renewable energy systems at paratransit charging stations through a novel technoeconomic optimization model. The model optimally sizes solar-storage investments to maximize net present value while incorporating electricity supply constraints, a crucial feature of regions affected by load shedding. Key findings from a case study show how the model can help fleet owners optimally integrate renewable energy solutions with commercial fleet operations.

Overall, the thesis demonstrates that even in the absence of in-region electric para- transit vehicles, one can model the adoption intention, technical and financial viability of paratransit electrification from the fleet owner perspective. While the thesis focuses on case studies in South Africa, the methods can be applied across developing contexts in sub-Saharan Africa where paratransit dominates.

Authors: Hull, C

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-8j1v6nnrz
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: transportation; development; renewable energy; paratransit; energy access; electric vehicles
• Subjects: Energy; Transportation