Range-wide analysis of jaguar (Panthera onca) population connectivity

Thesis

Rapid anthropogenic habitat transformation has caused widespread population declines and fragmentation, particularly for large carnivores whose persistence depends on extensive, connected landscapes. Jaguars (Panthera onca), the largest felid in the Neotropics, have lost approximately half of their historical range, with most populations outside the Amazon now small, isolated, and highly threatened. This thesis provides a comprehensive, large-scale assessment of jaguar ecology and conservation by integrating demographic, ecological, spatial, and social dimensions across the species’ range. First, I quantified jaguar population density and size across 22 protected areas and Indigenous Lands in the Amazon using camera-trap data and multi-session spatial capture–recapture models. Jaguar densities varied widely across sites, with the highest values associated with highly productive floodplain systems, highlighting the Amazon’s protected area network as a global stronghold for the species. Second, I developed a multiscale habitat suitability model using GPS telemetry data from 172 jaguars across eight countries. Jaguars strongly selected productive habitats near water and avoided human-modified landscapes, resulting in a high-performing suitability model that identified the Amazon and Mayan Forests as core strongholds while revealing additional conservation-relevant areas under ecoregion-specific analyses. Third, I assessed population connectivity across the jaguar’s range by identifying and ranking core movement areas and dispersal corridors using complementary resistance-based approaches. Results revealed a large, highly interconnected network spanning much of South America, contrasted with fragmented and discontinuous connectivity in northern portions of the range. Finally, I evaluated human–jaguar interactions and tolerance within the Pantanal–Amazon Corridor through a quantitative social survey. Despite localized conflicts, tolerance toward jaguars and conservation actions was generally high, with political orientation and perceptions of climatic change influencing attitudes. Together, these findings demonstrate that effective jaguar conservation requires integrating population status, habitat quality, landscape connectivity, and human dimensions. By identifying priority populations, habitats, corridors, and social contexts, this thesis provides an evidence-based framework to guide large-scale conservation planning and promote long-term jaguar persistence under accelerating environmental change.

Authors: Costa Alvarenga, G

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-ryvj6d0ez
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English