Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision

Young, K

Abstract:: Infrastructure services are of fundamental importance to a country's economic and social well-being; however, decisions about such investments are complex, involving multiple actors, high levels of uncertainty and creating a multi-decadal lock-in to the choices made. Methodologies to assist with such decisions ('appraisal' methodologies) have developed to consider many of these complexities, yet they remain sector specific, ignoring interdependencies between infrastructure networks. Such...
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APA Style

Young, K. (2015). Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision [PhD thesis]. University of Oxford.

MLA Style

Young, K. Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision. 2015. University of Oxford, PhD thesis.

Chicago Style

Young, K. 2015. “Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision.” PhD thesis, University of Oxford.
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Files:: KYoung Thesis v3.pdf

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Authors

+ Young, K More by this author

Division:: SSD
Department:: SOGE
Sub department:: Geography
Department:: University of Oxford
Role:: Author

Contributors

+ Brand, C

Department:: University of Oxford
Role:: Contributor

+ Thissen, W

Department:: TU Delft
Role:: Contributor

+ Hall, J

Department:: University of Oxford
Role:: Supervisor

+ Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council More from this funder

Grant:: EP/I01344X/1

DOI:: 10.5287/ora-qygyn1pq7
Type of award:: DPhil
Level of award:: Doctoral
Awarding institution:: University of Oxford

Language:: English
Keywords:: Options analysis

Infrastructure appraisal

Infrastructure systems

Pathways

Decision support tools

Flexibility

Real options
Subjects:: Infrastructure systems

Cost benefit analysis

Pathway analysis

Real options

Decision support systems
UUID:: uuid:ca177983-e5c9-4ce5-8577-19ef12a9f116
Deposit date:: 2016-07-06
ARK identifier:: ark:/29072/ora_ca177983e5c94ce5857719ef12a9f116

Related item:: Introducing system interdependency into infrastructure appraisal: from projects to portfolios to pathways
Description:: Current methods for appraisal of infrastructure projects have been developed to consider multiple criteria, wider economic impacts and uncertainty, yet their focus on standalone projects and sector specific methods ignores the widely acknowledged ‘system of system’ interactions between infrastructure networks. Here we draw inspiration from real options ‘in’ projects to build on current appraisal methods, extending the analysis from single projects to cross-sector regional portfolios and finally to temporally differentiated development pathways; quantifying each stage through a case study on the Thames Hub Vision. The result is a system perspective of the investments, including: (i) the emergent effects of infrastructure asset interactions and how these are affected by the timing and order of development; (ii) an understanding of the ‘opportunity’ value of an investment through its ability to restrict or enable further developments; and (iii) the total required resources and potential environmental outcomes. Through our case study we demonstrate these effects, identifying system effects sufficient to reverse the outcome of the analysis from a net negative, to a net positive result. Furthermore, we show that the enabling effects of an asset on future developments can create impacts an order of magnitude larger than those observed through current individual asset appraisals. Our developments allow the creation of a decision support tool capable of more fully evaluating the effects of infrastructure investments, with a focus on the long-term opportunity provided by development strategies. The work provides a platform for prioritisation of investments across sectors and for highlighting cross-sector effects, thereby encouraging stakeholder engagement and collaboration. Further work is necessary to explore the effects of intrinsic socio-economic uncertainty in the modelling assumptions and feedbacks between investments and future projections, such as population change and economic growth.
Related item:: Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub
Description:: Abstract: Evaluation of potential infrastructure projects varies from straightforward financial assessment, to explicit methods requiring multi-criteria valuation and uncertainty analysis. All, however, are siloed to their own sector and in many cases the stand-alone project under consideration, ignoring the growing interdependence between the sectors. Here we develop a long-term multi-sector, multi-attribute decision analysis, demonstrated through a case study on the Thames Hub proposal. Uncertainty is assessed through sensitivity analysis, provisioning time-dependency analysis and an adapted real options analysis, to produce bounded valuation of decision pathways. Further consideration of spatial feedbacks is then reviewed through a land-use transport model. The results are brought together to demonstrate a strategic, integrated infrastructure assessment methodology, focused on delivering long-term resilience despite uncertainty.

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Copyright holder:: Young, K; Katherine Young.

Licence:: Terms and Conditions of Use for Oxford University Research Archive

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Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision

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Strategic appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision

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