Do teachers’ expectations influence students’ educational aspirations? A study using the Chinese education panel survey (CEPS)

Thesis

Using the 2013 to 2014 baseline of the China Education Panel Survey, this study examines whether students’ perceptions of teacher expectations are associated with their educational aspirations. To address this question, the research analyses the nationally representative Grade 9 cohort (N = 9,208; analytic N = 7,971), estimating sequential linear regressions with controls for gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic background, cognitive ability, and family factors including parental expectations and parental involvement. A logistic specification is estimated as a robustness check. The results indicate a clear ordered association: students who perceive higher teacher expectations report higher aspirations, and those perceiving no clear expectation fall between the high and explicitly low groups. In models that adjust for these covariates, parental educational expectations have the strongest association with aspirations, whereas routine parental involvement shows little impact. Cognitive ability is positively related to aspirations, although the estimated effect is modest. Regarding demographic patterns, girls report higher aspirations than boys, and minority students slightly exceed Han peers after adjustment. Given the cross-sectional data structure, temporal ordering cannot be established, nor can unobserved confounding be ruled out. Therefore, the estimates should be interpreted as associations rather than causal effects. Taken together, the evidence underscores the importance of expectation signals from teachers and parents in shaping students’ educational goals in China. It also points to the value of teacher-awareness initiatives, parent-focused guidance on communicating educational visions, and system-level reforms that secure equitable access to aspirational support for all students.

Authors: Ao, Y

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-zvoajo9oq
• Type of award: MSc taught course
• Level of award: Masters
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: student educational aspiration; RDM2025; RDM; teacher expectation
• Subjects: RDM2025; Student Educational Aspiration; Teacher Expectation