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Pooling of Forecasts.

Abstract:

We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be prove...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Not peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1111/j.1368-423X.2004.00119.x

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Journal:
Econometrics Journal More from this journal
Volume:
7
Issue:
1
Pages:
1 - 31
Publication date:
2004-01-01
DOI:
ISSN:
1368-4221
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:bd23b958-9c14-4374-8ef3-7334206f2619
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:10455
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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