Journal article
Pooling of Forecasts.
- Abstract:
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We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be prove...
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- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Not peer reviewed
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- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Author's original, pdf, 216.6KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2004.00119.x
Authors
Funding
Bibliographic Details
- Publisher:
- Blackwell Publishing Ltd
- Journal:
- Econometrics Journal More from this journal
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 1 - 31
- Publication date:
- 2004-01-01
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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1368-4221
Item Description
- Language:
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English
- UUID:
-
uuid:bd23b958-9c14-4374-8ef3-7334206f2619
- Local pid:
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oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:10455
- Deposit date:
-
2011-08-16
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Royal Economic Society
- Copyright date:
- 2004
- Notes:
- © Royal Economic Society 2004. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA, 02148, USA. The definitive version is available at wileyonlinelibrary.com.
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