Out of the blue: the Cold War Soviet naval challenge, the mirroring fallacy and the navies of today

Working paper

In the mid-Cold War, Western strategists faced the sudden appearance of a capable Soviet Navy. Soviet ships deployed around the world, establishing a regular presence across strategically significant maritime chokepoints. As now declassified reports reveal, Western analysts misunderstood Soviet intent, interpretating this naval build-up as aggressive and expansionist. The consequence of this misperception was a Western naval build-up in the 1980s which still influences global security today. The misinterpretation was caused by analytical failure, specifically an over-reliance on capability assessments causing the ‘mirroring fallacy’ – expecting the adversary to mirror one’s own intent.

Authors: Ward, A

• Publication date: 2024-09-01
• Language: English
• Keywords: Cold War; mirroring; maritime strategy; sea power; Gorshkov; Soviet Navy; intelligence bias