Emigration, democratic norms, and the political economy of democracies in Central and Eastern Europe

Thesis

Starting in 2004, the accession of eleven Central and Eastern European countries to the European Union led to a new major wave of emigration on the continent. This thesis examines the impact of this wave of emigration on politics in countries of origin. It focuses on the effects of emigration on attitudes and behaviour in countries of origin – primarily support for democracy, political participation, and preferences for redistribution – and investigates the ultimate impact of these effects on political dynamics in the region. Previous evidence from other regions of the world suggested that emigration may have led to a process of democratic diffusion through political remittances by increasing support for democratic principles and participation, and may have led to a decline in demand for redistribution and constrained the development of welfare states through the impact of financial remittances. However, I show that these mechanisms do not adequately describe the political impact of emigration in Central and Eastern Europe. Through the constituent papers of this thesis, I ask three main questions: (1) What is the extent of democratic diffusion through political remittances in the region? (2) How has emigration affected support for redistribution among people living in origin countries? and (3) Do left-wing governments increase public spending in the region relative to other cabinets? – with the third question aimed at establishing the mechanisms that may connect changes in preferences driven by emigration to policy changes at an aggregate level. I find that emigration has only led to a very limited degree of democratic diffusion through political remittances in the region, driving an increase in non-electoral participation but also a decrease in electoral turnout among returnees, while leaving support for democracy and political interest largely unchanged. I show that emigration has led to higher demand for redistribution among people living in areas that experienced significant outflows, an effect concentrated among high earners and explained as the result of local consequences of emigration increasing expected returns from redistribution. Finally, I provide evidence that partisan spending effects persist in the region, with left-wing governments increasing public spending conditional on high levels of economic growth. On the whole, emigration has exacerbated existing vulnerabilities in the region’s democracies, which may have fuelled anti-establishment sentiment and the rise of the populist radical right. However, my findings also highlight that origin countries in the region have the potential to adapt to some of the challenges posed by emigration.

Authors: Cuibus, MV

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-yer7rxgb2
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: democracy; political economy; political sociology; emigration; Central and Eastern Europe
• Subjects: Migration; Political science