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Counterfactuals in “agreeing to disagree” type results

Abstract:
Moses and Nachum (1990) identified conceptual flaws (later echoed by Samet, 2010) in Bacharach's (1985) generalization of Aumann's (1976) seminal “agreeing to disagree” result by demonstrating that the crucial assumptions of like-mindedness and the Sure-Thing Principle are not meaningfully expressible in standard partitional information structures. This paper presents a new agreement theorem couched in “counterfactual information structures” that resolves these conceptual flaws. The new version of the Sure-Thing Principle introduced here, which accounts for beliefs at counterfactual states, is also shown to sit well with the intuition of the original version proposed by Savage (1972).
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2016.10.004

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Merton College
Role:
Author


Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Mathematical Social Sciences More from this journal
Volume:
84
Pages:
125-133
Publication date:
2016-11-01
Acceptance date:
2016-10-21
DOI:
EISSN:
0165-4896
ISSN:
0165-4896


Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:664042
UUID:
uuid:9cda5727-ebac-4026-bc76-5fed4a68bd38
Local pid:
pubs:664042
Source identifiers:
664042
Deposit date:
2017-01-17

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