Supranational tug of war: overcoming the European Union's authoritarian equilibrium

Thesis

Democratic backsliding and willful destruction of the rule of law in two member states of the European Union have threatened the EU’s status as a democratic entity. The EU has often reacted slowly and ineffectively to these threats. Some scholars have suggested that the EU even contributed actively, if involuntarily, to an ‘authoritarian equilibrium’. In this thesis, I trace the EU’s actions against Hungary (since 2010) and Poland (since 2015) until the end of 2021, analysing official documents, Parliamentary debates, and elite and expert interviews. EU policy-making evolved considerably between 2010 and 2021, the period under investigation in this thesis and the EU has acted differently in the two cases and over time. To explain these differences, I propose a theoretical framework that I coin ‘the supranational tug of war’. I suggest that the EU can destabilize the authoritarian equilibrium by imposing high costs on backsliding governments. For this to succeed, three steps must be fulfilled. First, policymakers must evaluate a backsliding threat correctly; secondly, they need to find an appropriate tool to deal with it; thirdly, they need to build political support for sanctions. If all three of these steps succeed, the EU can sanction authoritarian governments, which could destabilize the authoritarian equilibrium. However, this theoretical framework recognizes two things: first, that backsliding governments are part of the European decision-making process and actively pursue tactics to exploit weaknesses within it and avoid the imposition of costs on them; secondly, that feedback loops provide for changes in the decision-making process over time. I suggest that structurally, the EU is moving in the direction of imposing ever-higher costs on backsliding governments, which holds the key for overcoming the authoritarian equilibrium in the European Union.

Authors: Hanelt, E

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-2rm2p9rkx
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: decision-making; International Organisations; EU; autocratization; Poland; international politics; Hungary; democratic backsliding; European Union; Rule of Law
• Subjects: Politics and government; Political science; Rule of law; European Union