Essays in political economy

Thesis

This thesis is comprised of three independent chapters in the field of political economy. The first paper explores whether politicians can use means of direct communication with the citizenry, in order to consolidate their power. I study the case of Hugo Chávez's in Venezuela, focusing on the influence of the radio broadcasts of Aló Presidente. I rely on two sources of variation: incidental coverage of the radio station that carried Aló Presidente attributable to the natural ruggedness of the terrain; and variation over time in the content broadcast by this station, including the introduction of Aló Presidente. I identify an increase in Chávez's vote share in his first re-election attributable to the influence of Aló Presidente. Underlying mechanisms include the appeal of a narrative of democracy, and a deeply personalised style of communication. The second chapter explores the potential influence of colonial enslavement on contemporary political preferences. I study the economic and political legacies of enslavement in colonial Venezuela. When enslaved people were brought into the continent they were registered and given the name of their ethnic group or place of origin as surnames. These surnames have persisted through time, allowing me to identify individuals with enslaved ancestry in contemporary Venezuela. I find a negative effect of enslaved ancestry on development outcomes and a positive effect in support for Hugo Chávez -- an anti-system politician. The mechanisms of historical persistence are low human capital and low-skill occupational specialisation. Individuals with enslaved ancestry do not live in locations where enslaved labour was used during the colonial period. These locations are not economically worse-off today and were not more likely to support Chávez. These findings emphasise differences between mobile and place-based factors of historical persistence, explore a historical explanation to factors contributing to the rise of Chavismo, and highlight the long shadow of enslavement even in peripheral areas of a colonial empire. The third chapter explores the economic dividends of peace. It is an empirical evaluation of a package of policies adopted in 2013 by the state of Coahuila in Mexico with the objective of reducing the presence of drug cartels. Two crucial dimensions included strengthening local police enforcement, and banning businesses that provided liquidity to cartels. Using synthetic controls, I test the effectiveness of these policies against all crime-types and high-frequency economic outcomes. I find a modest reduction in crime-types related with cartels, and no impact on uncorrelated crime-types. I find no statistical evidence of transformative economic effects beyond mechanical artefacts parsimoniously explained by the policies adopted, such as a reduction in informality.

Authors: De Anda Casas, A

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-mvqke4op8
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: peace; coahuila; historical persistence; mexico; political economy; latin america; slavery; chavismo; aló presidente; venezuela
• Subjects: Economics