Have Bayesians Solved the Paradox of the Ravens?

Journal article

The standard Bayesian solution to the paradox of the ravens maintains that the degree of confirmation provided by seeing a nonblack nonraven is positive but negligible compared to that provided by seeing a black raven. I show that, unless we impose severe and unmotivated restrictions on the subject’s priors, this has the consequence that the cumulative confirmation provided by all the nonblack nonravens the subject expects to see is nonnegligible compared to the cumulative confirmation provided by all the black ravens the subject expects to see. If this is so, however, then the paradox retains its full force.

Authors: Karmon, A

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Journal: Philosophy of Science
• Pages: 1-21
• Publication date: 2026-03-26
• Acceptance date: 2026-03-07
• DOI: 10.1017/psa.2026.10207
• EISSN: 1539-767X
• ISSN: 0031-8248
• Language: English
• Keywords: Subject (documents); Bayesian probability; Degree (music); Bayesian inference; Black box