Investigating the internal structure of mafias using open-source intelligence

Thesis

This thesis develops the use of open-source data to study the structure of mafias. The thesis presents two empirical papers that investigate the structure of inter-group coordination within mafias and two empirical papers that focus on how open-source business register data can be used by both academic researchers and law enforcement to investigate the structure of mafias as they infiltrate legal markets.

The first paper, Investigating the Dynamics of Yakuza Violence Using Multilevel Network Analysis, examines a multilevel network of violent yakuza-on-yakuza attacks constructed using media sources. New multilevel temporal reciprocity measures and a multilevel exponential random graph model find that yakuza dispute resolution mechanisms are effective at reducing the complexity of violence networks and that yakuza groups identify themselves with the national syndicate to which they are affiliated. The second paper, Factions and Brokers in the Russian Mafia: Investigating the Structure of the Thieves-in-Law, investigates a co-signing network of documents published and signed by vory, the bosses of the Russian Mafia, finding that the formally non-hierarchical vory form factions around vertical patronage relationships rather than ethnicity or age, with key brokers bridging otherwise-disconnected clusters. The third paper, Testing the Reliability of OSINT Network Data for Investigating Organized Crime Infiltration of Legal-Market Businesses, compares data from the Italian business register to a closed-source indictment from a case concerning an `Ndrangheta group. Results suggest that while open-source business register data provide unique benefits, researchers must be careful to apply the data to analyses for which they are well-suited. The fourth paper, Proxy Targeting and Multiplex Resilience for Organized Crime Network Disruption, uses the business register and indictment datasets to investigate whether open-source data can be useful for targeting surveillance and disruption of mafia networks in legal markets. The analyses suggest that open-source data offer a useful proxy for expensive and hard-to-collect closed-source data when targeting criminal network structures in legal markets; however, tie multiplexity reduces the impact of targeted disruptions.

Authors: Breuer, N

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-o061meoo0
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: mafias; Vory; 'Ndrangheta; organized crime; Yakuza; social network analysis
• Subjects: Sociology; Criminology; Organizational sociology