Explaining the rise and fall of trust in India's relations with Pakistan and China in the 1950s

Thesis

Jawaharlal Nehru’s trust-building efforts with his Pakistani and Chinese counterparts in the 1950s are important moments in global history to shed light on the nature of trust-building between rivals in international relations. Due to their inattention to its socially-contingent nature, existing theories of trust in IR cannot provide compelling explanations for how rivals can build trust in the absence of costly signals, institutions, and shared identities. To address this, I offer a “thick description” of trust and argue that social factors, which exist in the micro-environments of elites—such as discrepant information, the personal reputations of leaders, shared weaknesses, and initial reciprocity—are integral to explaining the trust-building process between rivals [something I refer to as “strategic trust”]. Uncovering them allows us to better understand when face-to-face diplomacy is likely to be more effective as a medium of trust-building and why there is variation in trusting outcomes even as actor’s dispositional traits remain constant. I also limit the scope conditions for these social factors by showing that trust can either be “blocked” by spoilers (leading to disappointment) or “overridden” if actors are unable to live up to positive expectations of behaviour (leading to betrayal). I use historical methods, case study research, and interpretive process tracing to study two cases of trusting success in India-Pakistan and India-China relations, viz. the Nehru-Liaquat Agreement [1950] and The Panchsheel Phase [1954-1957], and two cases of trusting failure, viz. Nehru-Bogra talks on Kashmir [1953-1955] and Nehru-Zhou border talks [1960]. I argue that trust is as much a social relationship as it is a psychological state of being and actors consider social factors associated with their counterparts before making trusting choices. However, while widening the possibilities of trust-building, I also caution against the risks of disappointment and betrayal. Trust is a useful tool to overcome rivalries, but only if leaders are equally attuned to its promises as well as pitfalls.

Authors: Singh, AP

• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: Global South; betrayal; trust-building between rivals; India's relations with China; spoilers and disappointment; India's relations with Pakistan
• Subjects: South Asia--History; Trust; Confidence and security building measures (International relations)