Asymptotic properties of the gauge and power of step-indicator saturation

Journal article

Detecting multiple structural breaks at unknown dates is a central challenge in time series econometrics. Step-Indicator Saturation (SIS) addresses this challenge during model selection, and we develop its asymptotic theory for tuning parameter choice. We study its frequency gauge – the false detection rate – and show it is consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulations suggest that a smaller gauge minimizes bias in post-selection regression estimates. For the small gauge situation, we develop a complementary Poisson theory. We compare the local power of SIS to detect shifts with that of Andrews’ break test. We find that SIS excels when breaks are near the sample end or closely spaced. An application to UK labor productivity reveals a growth slowdown after the 2008 financial crisis.

Authors: Nielsen, B; Qian, M

• Publication status: Accepted
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Journal: Econometric Theory
• Publication date: 2025-11-06
• Acceptance date: 2025-09-12
• DOI: 10.1017/s0266466625100145
• EISSN: 1469-4360
• ISSN: 0266-4666
• Language: English