Oligarchs and separatist trajectories: a comparison of secessionist rebellions during 2014 crisis in Eastern Ukraine

Thesis

This study seeks to explain the local variation in the timing of the separatist rebellion across fortyseven municipalities that comprise three regions of East Ukraine: Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk. More specifically, the objective is to explain why some municipalities experienced a separatist takeover in the first few weeks of the crisis, while others did so much later, or not at all. The study builds on and contributes to the research on workplace mobilization theories and engages in an indepth analysis of crucial domestic factors, chiefly, of powerful regional economic players, commonly known as the oligarchs, on the local separatist rebellions. Given that the oligarchs are known to be notoriously influential forces in the socio-political landscape in Ukraine – as well as in most postSoviet states – the study seeks to empirically estimate their influence by collecting local-level enterprise-ownership data, which, in turn, reveals the number of people employed by these actors in a particular area. With people being a crucial component and a key driving force behind mass protests, the study theorizes that the oligarchs were able to use their control over local populations to not only sometimes initiate mobilization, but to also guide and shape its outcome. Moreover, the study demonstrates that the local economic composition of the regions is a key determining factor in guiding the political preferences of the oligarchs and often determines the extent of their "political flexibility," meaning their willingness to accept new political establishments as opposed to relying on lucrative connections in the corridors of power. To that end, the thesis also supplements the quantitative component with case studies across the three regions to better illustrate the tools and various strategies that the oligarchs used to shape the outcome of separatist rebellion, thus providing evidence in support of my argument through a combination of original data and drawing on extensive empirical research from both primary and secondary sources.

Authors: Semchuk, L

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-zbqzbppp0
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: separatism; war; Ukraine; Donbas; oligarchs