Rising seas and sinking islands: the geopolitics of climate change in Tuvalu and Kiribati

Thesis

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to accelerate throughout the 21st century, with transformative impacts for biophysical and social systems. Due to their vulnerability to sea level rise and because of fears that they may be fully inundated, low-lying atoll states have been framed as spaces at the forefront of climate change. Questions have been raised over the future sovereignty, territorial integrity and identity of these states in a warmer and wetter world. This thesis explores climate change in relation to small island states from a critical geopolitics perspective by focusing on two Pacific atoll states: Tuvalu and Kiribati. It examines how space and time are influencing understandings of climate change within these states in relation to geopolitics, adaptation and diplomacy. Whilst geomorphologically similar, the perceived threat from climate change has been constructed, and responded to, differently in Tuvalu and Kiribati.

Employing a mixed-methods approach, this thesis draws upon fieldwork conducted in Tuvalu and Fiji as well as at the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP24) held in Poland, consisting of elite interviews, participant observation and analysis of secondary sources. Through three substantive chapters, this thesis examines different aspects of the geopolitics of climate change. Firstly, it unpacks the construction of atoll states as “sinking islands” by drawing upon bodies of literature discussing vertical geopolitics and geographies of the ocean. It offers an insight into how scientific knowledge is co-opted, contested and propagated within climate geopolitics by considering the recent geomorphological and diplomatic dispute over the future of Tuvalu’s islands. Secondly, it argues that these debates are key in understanding how climate change adaptation is framed within island imaginaries. Resultantly, this research explores the spatialities and temporalities which underpin the geopolitics of adaptation in atolls. Finally, it is argued that the relationship between bodies, emotion and performance is a core component of Tuvalu and Kiribati’s diplomacy. Particular bodies are enrolled in emotional diplomatic performances to make climate change visible.

Overall, this thesis advocates that emotions are used to disrupt the privileged position of science within climate diplomacy, and scholars should be more attentive to the spatiality of emotions in order to better understand the power relations in diplomacy. It contends that spatial imaginaries, temporalities and emotions are intertwined within topographic anxieties of climate change that disrupt the process of territorialisation. This thesis argues that climate change adaptation is both performative and prefigurative and a key process for states to resist hegemonic climate narratives. Finally, it asserts the importance of methodological approaches that amplify and take seriously the voices of those affected by climate change.

Authors: Saddington, LR

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-7qkme6jb2
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: Tuvalu; climate change; Kiribati; adaptation; geopolitics; diplomacy
• Subjects: Human geography