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Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

Abstract:

Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties has improved the probabilistic skill of the ECMWF ensemble by increasing reliability and reducing the error of the ensemble mean. Recent progress, challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this paper. The coming years are likely to see a...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.3094

Authors


Leutbecher, M More by this author
Ollinaho, P More by this author
Balsamo, G More by this author
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Funding agency for:
Christensen, HM
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Funding agency for:
MacLeod, D
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Funding agency for:
Smolarkiewicz, P
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Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal website
Volume:
143
Issue:
707
Pages:
2315-2339
Publication date:
2017-09-26
Acceptance date:
2017-06-07
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Pubs id:
pubs:700160
URN:
uri:fa37b393-4f18-4ee6-b523-357dfe610649
UUID:
uuid:fa37b393-4f18-4ee6-b523-357dfe610649
Local pid:
pubs:700160

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