Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

Journal article

Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties has improved the probabilistic skill of the ECMWF ensemble by increasing reliability and reducing the error of the ensemble mean. Recent progress, challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this paper. The coming years are likely to see a further increase in the use of ensemble methods in forecasts and assimilation. This will put increasing demands on the methods used to perturb the forecast model. An area that is receiving a greater attention than 5 to 10 years ago is the physical consistency of the perturbations. Other areas where future efforts will be directed are the expansion of uncertainty representations to the dynamical core and to other components of the Earth system as well as the overall computational efficiency of representing model uncertainty.

Authors: Leutbecher, M; Lock, S; Ollinaho, P; Lang, S; Balsamo, G

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Wiley
• Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Volume: 143
• Issue: 707
• Pages: 2315-2339
• Publication date: 2017-09-26
• Acceptance date: 2017-06-07
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3094
• EISSN: 1477-870X
• ISSN: 0035-9009
• Keywords: ensemble data assimilation; weak-constraint 4D-Var; model uncertainty; stochastic parametrization; numerical weather prediction; Earth system model; ensemble forecasts; dynamical core