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Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP.

Abstract:

We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter. The credit conditions index is measured in the Federal Reserve's Survey of Senior Loan Officers and its importance is consistent with a 'financial accelerator' view. The balance of payments, exchange ra...

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Publisher:
CEPR
Volume:
2906
Series:
C.E.P.R.Discussion Papers
Host title:
C.E.P.R.Discussion Papers
Publication date:
2001-01-01
Paper number:
2906
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:f6c64875-7d23-45aa-a87a-3e9869e9d720
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11724
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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