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ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

Abstract:

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the n...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2009GL040896

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Journal:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS More from this journal
Volume:
36
Issue:
21
Publication date:
2009-11-12
DOI:
ISSN:
0094-8276
Language:
English
Pubs id:
pubs:158723
UUID:
uuid:f69a70d0-c4ab-4fa9-9fa3-2ee3a3f22e62
Local pid:
pubs:158723
Source identifiers:
158723
Deposit date:
2012-12-19

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