Journal article : Review
Seasonal and regional jet stream changes and drivers
- Abstract:
- The eddy-driven jet streams, which are regions of strong westerly wind in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, exert a leading influence on regional climate. In this Review, we outline the seasonally and regionally varying drivers, characteristics and changes in the jet streams. State-of-the-art models commonly predict a future polewards shift of the zonal-mean and annual-mean jet streams, typically ranging between 0° and 2° latitude by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, but with large model-to-model uncertainty. Furthermore, regional and seasonal projections can deviate substantially from the annual-mean and zonal-mean picture, and the drivers of these projected changes are not fully understood. Jet trends have emerged in the reanalysis record since 1979, of which a polewards shift of the summertime austral jet of ~0.3°/ decade is the trend most clearly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Although other trends have been observed, potentially large internal variability and incomplete understanding of the drivers of these trends precludes clear anthropogenic attribution at this point. Research is unevenly distributed across regions and seasons, with winter receiving the most attention, particularly in the North Atlantic. To support physical understanding and impact assessments, future research should provide a more complete picture of the seasonally and regionally varying jet stream drivers, and their changes, especially in spring and autumn.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 674.5KB, Terms of use)
-
(Preview, Supplementary materials, pdf, 1.5MB, Terms of use)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s43017-025-00749-9
Authors
+ UK Research and Innovation
More from this funder
- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/001aqnf71
- Grant:
- EP/Y036123/1
+ Natural Environment Research Council
More from this funder
- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/02b5d8509
- Grant:
- NE/V012045/1
- NE/W005875/1
- NE/T006250/1
+ NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
More from this funder
- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/05cvfcr44
- Grant:
- 1852977
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Nature Reviews Earth & Environment More from this journal
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 12
- Pages:
- 824-842
- Publication date:
- 2025-11-27
- Acceptance date:
- 2025-10-15
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
2662-138X
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Subtype:
-
Review
- Pubs id:
-
2347620
- Local pid:
-
pubs:2347620
- Deposit date:
-
2026-02-22
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Springer Nature Limited 2025
- Copyright date:
- 2025
- Rights statement:
- © Springer Nature Limited 2025. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
- Notes:
- The author accepted manuscript (AAM) of this paper has been made available under the University of Oxford's Open Access Publications Policy, and a CC BY public copyright licence has been applied.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record