Environmental and agricultural impacts of dietary shifts at global and national scales

Report

• Integrated pathways can highlight system-wide implications of dietary shifts and help countries prepare for this transition.
• We use the FABLE modelling framework that connects 20 countries’ national food and land use system models and 6 rest-of-the-world regions through international trade.
• Shifts towards healthier diets could cut global green-house gas (GHG) emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) by half and reduce forest loss by 20% over the period 2030-2050 compared to Current Trends.
• Using country examples, we show contrasted potential impacts of transition towards healthier diets on agricultural trade balance and agricultural production by 2050.
• During this transition, impacts of higher production of nuts, fruits and vegetables on local water use should be carefully monitored.
• Long-term planning is necessary to ensure a feasible, fair, and acceptable transition, especially for the livestock sector in northern and meat exporting countries.

Authors: Mosnier, A; Diaz, M; Douzal, C

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Reviewed (other)
• Publisher: FABLE Consortium
• Series: FABLE Policy Brief
• Place of publication: Paris, France
• Publication date: 2021-07-27
• Language: English
• Keywords: food; dietary shifts; sustainable land-use