Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs

Report

This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. It creates an anthropic decision theory (ADT) that decides these problems from a small set of principles. By doing so, it demonstrates that the attitude of agents with regards to each other (selfish or altruistic) changes the decisions they reach, and that it is very important to take this into account. To illustrate ADT, it is then applied to two major anthropic problems and paradoxes, the Presumptuous Philosopher and Doomsday problems, thus resolving some issues about the probability of human extinction.

Authors: Armstrong, S

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Reviewed (other)
• Publisher: Future of Humanity Institute
• Publication date: 2017-09-01
• Language: English
• Keywords: anthropic probabilities; decision theory