Journal article
Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics
- Abstract:
- Increasing atmospheric moisture content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes under climate warming. However, extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS) to temperature is complicated by the presence of reduced or hook-shaped scaling, and the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here, by using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model projections, we propose a physical decomposition of EPS into thermodynamic and dynamic components (i.e., the effects of atmospheric moisture and vertical ascent velocity) at a global scale in both historical and future climates. Unlike previous expectations, we find that thermodynamics do not always contribute to precipitation intensification, with the lapse rate effect and the pressure component partly offsetting positive EPS. Large anomalies in future EPS projections (with lower and upper quartiles of -1.9%/°C and 8.0%/°C) are caused by changes in updraft strength (i.e., the dynamic component), with a contrast of positive anomalies over oceans and negative anomalies over land areas. These findings reveal counteracting effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on EPS, and underscore the importance of understanding precipitation extremes by decomposing thermodynamic effects into more detailed terms.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 10.2MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41467-023-39039-7
Authors
+ National Natural Science Foundation of China
More from this funder
- Grant:
- 52009091
- 52261145744
- 52242904
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Nature Communications More from this journal
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 3197
- Publication date:
- 2023-06-02
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-05-26
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
2041-1723
- Pmid:
-
37268612
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1354557
- Local pid:
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pubs:1354557
- Deposit date:
-
2023-06-27
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Gu et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- Copyright © 2023, The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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