European winter climate response to projected Arctic sea-ice loss strongly shaped by change in the North Atlantic jet

Journal article

Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea-ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic-European region to future Arctic sea-ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea-ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic-European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic-European response to future Arctic sea-ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic-European precipitation response to future Arctic sea-ice loss.

Authors: Ye, K; Woollings, T; Screen, JA

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Wiley
• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Volume: 50
• Issue: 5
• Article number: e2022GL102005
• Publication date: 2023-03-07
• Acceptance date: 2023-01-20
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL102005
• EISSN: 1944-8007
• ISSN: 0094-8276
• Language: English
• Keywords: model uncertainties; Arctic sea-ice loss; FFR; storm track activity; North Atlantic jet; temperature and precipitation