Journal article
Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming
- Abstract:
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Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are emerging. The significance of these trends is often low and varies between datasets, but the similarity across different seasons and hemispheres is notable. While much recent work has focused on the jet response to amplified Arctic warming, the observed trends are more consistent with the known sensitivity of the circulation to tropical warming. The circulation trends are within the range of historical model simulations but are relatively large compared to the models when the accompanying trends in upper tropospheric temperature gradients are considered. The balance between tropical warming and jet shifts should therefore be closely monitored in the near future. We hypothesise that the sensitivity of the circulation to tropical heating may be one factor affecting this balance.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 3.4MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s43247-023-00792-8
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Communications Earth & Environment More from this journal
- Volume:
- 4
- Article number:
- 125
- Publication date:
- 2023-04-19
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-04-03
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2662-4435
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1337286
- Local pid:
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pubs:1337286
- Deposit date:
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2023-04-13
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Woollings et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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