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Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming

Abstract:

Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are emerging. The significance of these trends is often low and varies between datasets, but the similarity across different seasons and hemispheres is notable. While much recent work has focused on the jet response to amplified Arctic warming, the observed trends are more consistent with the known sensitivity of the circulation to tropical warming. The circulation trends are within the range of historical model simulations but are relatively large compared to the models when the accompanying trends in upper tropospheric temperature gradients are considered. The balance between tropical warming and jet shifts should therefore be closely monitored in the near future. We hypothesise that the sensitivity of the circulation to tropical heating may be one factor affecting this balance.

Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/s43247-023-00792-8

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
Pembroke College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-5815-9079


Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Communications Earth & Environment More from this journal
Volume:
4
Article number:
125
Publication date:
2023-04-19
Acceptance date:
2023-04-03
DOI:
EISSN:
2662-4435


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1337286
Local pid:
pubs:1337286
Deposit date:
2023-04-13

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