Journal article
A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain
- Abstract:
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Background: It is of considerable interest to fore cast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available.
Methods: We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age -cohort specification and multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies.
Results: The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out -of-sample comparison.
Conclusion: Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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Access Document
- Files:
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(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 90.7KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1136/oemed-2015-10330
Authors
- Funding agency for:
- Martinez-Miranda, M
- Grant:
- MTM2013- 41383P
- Funding agency for:
- Martinez-Miranda, M
- Grant:
- MTM2013- 41383P
- Publisher:
- BMJ Publishing Group
- Journal:
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine More from this journal
- Volume:
- 73
- Pages:
- 561-563
- Publication date:
- 2016-01-01
- Acceptance date:
- 2016-04-24
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1470-7926
- ISSN:
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1351-0711
- Pubs id:
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pubs:617751
- UUID:
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uuid:ee24ad27-9c9b-4418-a6a5-ed5d63b3c594
- Local pid:
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pubs:617751
- Source identifiers:
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617751
- Deposit date:
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2016-04-25
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Martinez-Miranda et al
- Copyright date:
- 2016
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