Journal article icon

Journal article

Over-dispersed age-period-cohort models

Abstract:
We consider inference and forecasting for aggregate data organised in a twoway table with age and cohort as indices, but without measures of exposure. This is modelled using a Poisson likelihood with an age-period-cohort structure for the mean while allowing for over-dispersion. We propose a repetitive structure that keeps the dimension of table fixed while increasing the latent exposure. For this we use a class of infinitely divisible distributions which include a variety of compound Poisson models and Poisson mixture models. This results in asymptotic F inference and t forecast distributions.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

Actions

Access Document

Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1080/01621459.2017.1366908

Authors

More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Nuffield College
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Economics
Role:
Author


More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Harnau, J
Grant:
AdG 694262
More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Nielsen, B
Grant:
ES/J500112/1


Publisher:
Taylor and Francis
Journal:
Journal of the American Statistical Association More from this journal
Volume:
113
Issue:
524
Pages:
1722-1732
Publication date:
2017-08-28
Acceptance date:
2017-07-27
DOI:
EISSN:
1537-274X
ISSN:
0162-1459


Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:710082
UUID:
uuid:ec5cbb51-e9fa-4a49-861c-6982a9d8c7ee
Local pid:
pubs:710082
Source identifiers:
710082
Deposit date:
2017-08-01
ARK identifier:

Terms of use


Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP