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Factors influencing the seasonal predictability of northern hemisphere severe winter storms

Abstract:

We investigate the role of the tropics, the stratosphere, and atmosphere‐ocean coupling for seasonal forecasts of strong, potentially damaging, Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter wind storm frequencies. This is done by means of relaxation experiments with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model, which allow us to prescribe perfect forecasts for specific parts of the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system. We find that perfect predictions of the Northern Hemisphere stratosp...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's Version

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2018gl079415

Authors


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ORCID:
0000-0003-4696-3059
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ORCID:
0000-0002-1205-3754
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ORCID:
0000-0001-5758-2249
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Subgroup:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
University College
ORCID:
0000-0002-7231-6974
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union Publisher's website
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters Journal website
Volume:
46
Issue:
1
Pages:
365-373
Publication date:
2018-12-06
Acceptance date:
2018-12-03
DOI:
EISSN:
1944-8007
ISSN:
0094-8276
Pubs id:
pubs:959080
URN:
uri:e71f528f-df2e-4e5a-9eb6-8542705c78df
UUID:
uuid:e71f528f-df2e-4e5a-9eb6-8542705c78df
Local pid:
pubs:959080
Language:
English

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