The primacy of doubt: evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability

Journal article

Over the last 25 years, the focus of operational numerical weather prediction has evolved from that of estimating the most likely evolution of weather to that of estimating probability distributions of future weather associated with inevitable uncertainties in both initial conditions and model equations. This evolution from determinism to uncertainty has not only increased the scientific rigor of weather prediction, it has also increased the value of weather forecasts for users. In addition, it has opened up a new approach to solving the equations of motion, likely to be of importance for both weather and climate prediction in an age where high-performance computing is limited by power consumption. However, despite all this, the numerical weather prediction community has yet to embrace fully the concept of the primacy of doubt. It is now time to take the final step in this direction.

Authors: Palmer, T

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Journal: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• Volume: 9
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 730-734
• Publication date: 2017-04-20
• Acceptance date: 2017-04-06
• DOI: 10.1002/2017ms000999
• EISSN: 1942-2466
• Language: English
• Keywords: imprecise modeling; stochastic parameterization; ensemble prediction; probability forecasting; value of weather forecasts