European gas security in historical perspective

Journal article

Nearly 30 years ago, Robert Mabro, on a rare excursion into European gas issues, wrote: ‘Gas trade in Europe also raises political issues. In this area a distinction must be made between the risk of interruption arising from disagreements about the implementation of contracts, and the risk of interruption arising from international hostilities. The former is a bargaining problem which is referred to as political, although in reality the disagreements may be about economic clauses such as prices and volumes of exports. The latter is a problem which may arise when the parties to a contract are in conflict over issues unrelated to the gas trade.’ What we face today in the Russia– Ukraine relationship is precisely a combination of those elements. But we also face problems and conditions which could not have been remotely foreseen in the mid-1980s. Thirty years ago the major security issue was whether and where Europe would be able to secure sufficient gas to meet demand – which had been rising steadily for a decade and would continue to do so for another 20 years. In 2015 it is uncertain whether the most important security issues relate to gas supply, demand, pricing, or flows. The answer probably depends on which region of Europe, and which part of the value chain, is under consideration.

Authors: Stern, J

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
• Journal: Oxford Energy Forum
• Volume: 100
• Pages: 42-44
• Publication date: 2015-05-01
• ISSN: 0959-7727
• Language: English
• Keywords: OIES; Oxford Energy Forum