A polycrisis threat model for AI

Journal article

A catastrophic AI threat model is a rigorous exploration of some particular mechanisms by which AI could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. In this article, I explore a polycrisis threat model. According to this model, AI will lead to a series of harms like disinformation and increased concentration of wealth and power. Interactions between these different harms will make things worse than they would have been had each harm operated in isolation. And the interacting harms will ultimately cause or constitute a catastrophe. My aim in this paper is not to defend the inevitability of such a polycrisis occurring. Instead, I aspire merely to establish that polycrisis-driven catastrophe is sufficiently plausible that it calls for further exploration. In doing so, I hope to emphasise that alongside worries about AI takeover, those concerned about catastrophic risk from AI should also take seriously worries about extreme power concentration and systemic disempowerment of humanity.

Authors: Bales, A

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Springer
• Journal: AI and Society
• Volume: 40
• Issue: 8
• Pages: 6277-6289
• Publication date: 2025-05-07
• Acceptance date: 2025-04-14
• DOI: 10.1007/s00146-025-02371-1
• EISSN: 1435-5655
• ISSN: 0951-5666
• Language: English
• Keywords: Systemic disempowerment; Threat modelling; AI takeover; Polycrisis; Existential risk; Power concentration