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Contrasting El Niño-La Niña predictability and prediction skill in 2-year reforecasts of the 20th century

Abstract:

Despite the growing demand for long-range ENSO predictions beyond one year, quantifying the skill at these lead-times remains limited. This is partly due to inadequate long-records of seasonal reforecasts that make skill estimates of irregular ENSO events quite challenging. Here, we investigate ENSO predictability and the dependency of prediction skill on the ENSO cycle using 110-years of 24-month-long 10-member ensemble reforecasts from ECMWF’s coupled model (SEAS5-20C) initialised on 1st No...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/jcli-d-22-0028.1

Authors


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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-8102-2356
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
University College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-7231-6974
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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-9611-8788
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Name:
European Commission
Grant:
776613
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
Journal of Climate More from this journal
Volume:
36
Issue:
5
Pages:
1269-1285
Publication date:
2022-11-17
Acceptance date:
2022-11-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1309361
Local pid:
pubs:1309361
Deposit date:
2022-11-25

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