Journal article
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia
- Abstract:
- The leading mode of wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic-North Eurasia sector is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accounts for more than one third of the total variability. This study explores the influences of the leading mode on decadal climate variability of Northern Eurasia. We focus on the little-explored decadal covariations of surface air temperature (SAT), snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover over the region, using extensive model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project sixth phase. Recent decadal trends (−0.92σ per decade) in the leading mode identified, are found to be largely a manifestation of internal climate variability (at least two thirds from the most conservative estimate). These internally-generated decadal trends strongly contributed to recent trends in SAT, snowfall, SWE and snow cover over Eurasia. External forcings should have played a minor role over Eurasia as they usually suggest opposite decadal trends to those observed. An exception is found for snowfall and SWE in east Eurasia, for which external forcings may have driven a large part of the recent upward trends, equally as important as the NAO-dominated mode. This points to a complex interplay between internally-generated and externally-forced climate variability over Northern Eurasia. Model discrepancies are identified in reproducing the linkages between the leading mode and the Eurasian surface climate variability. The internally-generated variability of this leading mode thus represents a large source of uncertainty in future decadal climate projections over Eurasia and, due to the memory effects of snow, also in modelling springtime climate variability.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 2.5MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f
Authors
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Journal:
- Environmental Research Letters More from this journal
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 4
- Article number:
- 044025
- Publication date:
- 2022-03-18
- Acceptance date:
- 2022-02-28
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1748-9326
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1246207
- Local pid:
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pubs:1246207
- Deposit date:
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2022-03-17
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Ye et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2022
- Rights statement:
- ©2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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