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Ensemble of pre-trained models for long-tailed trajectory prediction

Abstract:

This work explores the application of ensemble modeling to the multidimensional regression problem of trajectory prediction for vehicles in urban environments. We show how, perhaps surprisingly, combining state-of-the-art deep learning models out-of-the-box (without retraining or finetuning) with a simple weighted average method can enhance the overall prediction. Indeed, while in general combining trajectory prediction models is not straightforward, this simple approach enhances performance by 10% over the best prediction model, especially in the long-tailed metrics. We show that this performance improvement holds on both the NuScenes and Argoverse datasets, and that these improvements are made across the dataset distribution.

Publication status:
Accepted
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-6121-5839


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Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/001aqnf71
Grant:
EP/W011344/1
More from this funder
Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/0439y7842
Grant:
EP/V000748/1


Publisher:
IEEE
Acceptance date:
2025-07-01
Event title:
IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2025)
Event location:
Gold Coast, Australia
Event website:
https://ieee-itsc.org/2025/
Event start date:
2025-11-18
Event end date:
2025-11-21


Language:
English
Pubs id:
2267968
Local pid:
pubs:2267968
Deposit date:
2025-08-04

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