How to reduce agrifood systems' future hidden costs? A multi-country case study. State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) 2024 Background report

Report

• Working with stakeholders from government, business, civil society and academia, we examined the hidden costs of the UK’s agrifood system. We identified detailed opportunities for using UK-specific data and methods to improve the accuracy and relevance of the global SOFA 2023 analysis of hidden costs, especially by using UK land use data.
• Using UK data from the FABLE calculator together with a model that emulates the global burden of disease study, we estimate the hidden costs of the UK’s agrifood system as 180 billion 2020 PPP dollars in 2023, mainly from unhealthy diets. This is lower than the 2023 SOFA estimate of 255 billion 2020 PPP dollars, partly because obesity cannot yet be modeled using FABLE.
• The hidden costs are over 5% of the UK’s 2020 GDP – similar to the total value added from the whole agrifood sector. This hidden deficit accumulates over time, posing economic risk to the UK, especially through the health impacts that weaken human capital.
• The model estimates that a more sustainable pathway could reduce total hidden costs by around 16% (23 billion 2020 PPP dollars per year) – worth around 686 billion 2020 PPP dollars over the next 30 years.
• The main factor for delivering these benefits is shifting to a healthier and more plant-based diet, with lower consumption of ultra-processed food. Coupled with reduced food waste and increased agricultural productivity, this frees up land for restoration to forest and other ecosystems. Together with the use of agroecological farming methods, this delivers benefits for carbon sequestration and biodiversity while also reducing nitrogen pollution. However, this could result in trade-offs with employment in the agriculture sector which need to be carefully addressed.
• More research is needed on how to encourage consumers to shift to healthier diets. Education is not enough, when consumers live in an environment full of unhealthy food choices, so strong government leadership and a holistic set of policies is needed. Some suggestions are provided in the final section of this chapter.

Authors: Vittis, Y; Mosnier, A; Smith, A; Harrison, PA; Lynch, J

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Reviewed (other)
• Publisher: Sustainable Development Solutions Network
• Place of publication: Paris, France
• Publication date: 2024-11-08
• Language: English
• Keywords: agriculture; food; sustainability