A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making

Journal article

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used o...

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Authors: Adib, K; Hancock, PA; Rahimli, A; Mugisa, B; Abdulrazeq, F

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
• Journal: BMJ Global Health
• Volume: 6
• Issue: 3
• Pages: e005207-e005207
• Publication date: 2021-03-24
• Acceptance date: 2021-03-01
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005207
• EISSN: 2059-7908
• ISSN: 2059-7908
• Language: English
• Keywords: Citizen journalism; Computer science; Process (computing); Economic shortage; Government (linguistics); Environmental planning; Business; Epidemiology; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Geography; Pandemic; Medicine; Public health; Political science