How secure are Middle East oil supplies?

Working paper

During the 1980s and 1990s, energy security declined in importance as oil prices fell and spare capacity stood at high levels. This was reversed in the decade that followed and once more energy security became a priority in policy agendas of most oil-importing countries. High oil prices, threats of terrorist attacks, instability in many oil-exporting countries and the rise in so-called ‘oil nationalism’ have raised serious concerns about the security of oil supplies. In the background, there are fears that the world may be running out of oil with many observers predicting an imminent oil supply crunch (Campbell and Laherrère, 1998) and raising doubts about the size of proven oil reserves in the Middle East and elsewhere (Simmons, 2005). These doom-laden predictions about the availability of oil supplies and the size of reserves are gaining popular credence at times when oil market conditions are tight. Many international agencies, such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Agency (IEA), are also predicting a healthy growth in global oil demand in the next 20–25 years, driven primarily by high growth rates of non-OECD Asian economies.

Authors: Fattouh, B

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Reviewed (other)
• Publisher: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
• Series: OIES paper
• Publication date: 2007-01-01
• Edition: Publisher's version
• Paper number: M33
• ISBN: 9781901795646
• Language: English
• Keywords: oil security; war; Islamists; spare capacity; OIES; geopolitics; terrorist attacks; security margins; the Middle East; sanctions