Journal article
Potential for the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome in association with mass gatherings in Saudi Arabia
- Abstract:
-
Background: A novel coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causing severe, life-threatening respiratory disease has emerged in the Middle East at a time when two international mass gatherings in Saudi Arabia are imminent. While MERS-CoV has already spread to and within other countries, these mass gatherings could further amplify and/or accelerate its international dissemination, especially since the origins and geographic source of the virus remain poorly understood.
Methods: We analyzed 2012 worldwide flight itinerary data and historic Hajj pilgrim data to predict population movements out of Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East to help cities and countries assess their potential for MERS-CoV importation. We compared the magnitude of travel to countries with their World Bank economic status and per capita healthcare expenditures as surrogate markers of their capacity for timely detection of imported MERS-CoV and their ability to mount an effective public health response.
Results: 16.8 million travelers flew on commercial flights out of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates between June and November 2012, of which 51.6% were destined for India (16.3%), Egypt (10.4%), Pakistan (7.8%), the United Kingdom (4.3%), Kuwait (3.6%), Bangladesh (3.1%), Iran (3.1%) and Bahrain (2.9%). Among the 1.74 million foreign pilgrims who performed the Hajj last year, an estimated 65.1% originated from low and lower-middle income countries.
Conclusion: MERS-CoV is an emerging pathogen with pandemic potential with its apparent epicenter in Saudi Arabia, where millions of pilgrims will imminently congregate for two international mass gatherings. Understanding global population movements out of the Middle East through the end of this year's Hajj could help direct anticipatory MERS-CoV surveillance and public health preparedness to mitigate its potential global health and economic impacts.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 378.8KB, Terms of use)
-
- Publication website:
- https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23884087/
Authors
- Publisher:
- Public Library of Science
- Journal:
- PLoS Currents More from this journal
- Publication date:
- 2013-07-17
- EISSN:
-
2157-3999
- Keywords:
- UUID:
-
uuid:d8b80547-514f-4c0f-9112-9aa82801d74f
- Local pid:
-
pubs:420627
- Source identifiers:
-
420627
- Deposit date:
-
2013-11-16
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Khan et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2013
- Rights statement:
- © 2013 Khan et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
- Notes:
- PLoS Currents no longer makes their manuscripts available on their website. This paper can be found on PubMed at: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23884087/
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record