Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities

Working paper

This paper studies the identification of perceived ex ante returns in the context of binary human capital investment decisions. The environment is characterised by uncertainty about future outcomes, with some uncertainty being resolved over time. In this context, each individual holds a probability distribution over different levels of returns. The paper uses the hypothetical choice methodology to identify nonparametrically the population distribution of several individual-specific distribution parameters, which are crucial for counterfactual policy analyses. The empirical application estimates perceived returns on overstaying for Afghan asylum seekers in Germany and evaluates the effect of assisted voluntary return policies.

Authors: Méango, R

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
• Place of publication: Oxford
• Publication date: 2023-03-31
• ISSN: 1471-0498
• Paper number: 1007
• Language: English
• Keywords: subjective expectations; ex ante returns; semiparametric; distribution regression; asylum seekers; nonparametric