NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis

Heinze, AN; Denneau, L; Tonry, JL; Smartt, SJ; Erasmus, N; Fitzsimmons, A; Robinson, JE; Weiland, H; Flewelling, H; Stalder, B; Rest, A; Young, DR

Climate Research Collection

Journal article

NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis

Abstract:: Increasing attention has been paid to multi-hazards in environmental disaster studies produced during the last decade. Multi-hazard studies focus on the occurrence, interaction and effect of several natural hazards in the same region. Despite the increasing number of multi-hazard studies, few investigations have focused on global-scale multi-hazard events. With the aim of closing this gap, our study focuses on the identification of periods during the last 1.5 million years of the Pleistocene epoch, with the quasi-parallel appearance of natural hazards (e.g., asteroid impacts and large volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 8 and 7) amplifying their individual effects and thus causing long-term, global-scale changes. Of the seven identified potential multi-hazard events, three were considered as possible global-scale events with a longer term environmental (paleoclimatic) impact; dated to c.a., 1.4 Ma (marine isotope stage – MIS45), 1.0 Ma (MIS 27), and 100 ka (MIS 5c), respectively. Two additional periods (around 50 and 20 ka) were identified as being associated with more restricted scale multi-hazard events, which might cause a “Little Ice Age-like” climatic episode in the history of the Pleistocene Period. In addition, we present a hypothesis about the complex climatic response to a global-scale multi-hazard event consisting of a series of asteroid impacts and volcanic eruption linked to a geomagnetic polarity change, namely the Matuyama-Brunhes Boundary, which might be accompanied by global cooling and result in the final step of the Early Middle Pleistocene Transition

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

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APA Style

Heinze, A. N., Denneau, L., Tonry, J. L., Smartt, S. J., Erasmus, N., Fitzsimmons, A., Robinson, J. E., Weiland, H., Flewelling, H., Stalder, B., Rest, A., & Young, D. R. (2021). NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis. The Planetary Science Journal, 2(1), 12–12.

MLA Style

Heinze, AN, et al. “NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis.” The Planetary Science Journal, vol. 2, no. 1, 2021, pp. 12–12.

Chicago Style

Heinze, AN, L Denneau, JL Tonry, et al. 2021. “NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis.” The Planetary Science Journal 2 (1): 12–12.
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