Scale-selective precision for weather and climate forecasting

Journal article

Attempts to include the vast range of length scales and physical processes at play in Earth's atmosphere push weather and climate forecasters to build andmore efficiently utilize some of themost powerful computers in the world.One possible avenue for increased efficiency is in using less precise numerical representations of numbers. If computing resources saved can be reinvested in other ways (e.g., increased resolution or ensemble size) a reduction in precision can lead to an increase in forecast accuracy. Here we examine reduced numerical precision in the context of ECMWF's Open Integrated Forecast System (OpenIFS) model. We posit that less numerical precision is required when solving the dynamical equations for shorter length scales while retaining accuracy of the simulation. Transformations into spectral space, as found in spectral models such as OpenIFS, enact a length scale decomposition of the prognostic fields. Utilizing this, we introduce a reduced-precision emulator into the spectral space calculations and optimize the precision necessary to achieve forecasts comparable with double and single precision. On weather forecasting time scales, larger length scales require higher numerical precision than smaller length scales. On decadal time scales, half precision is still sufficient precision for everything except the global mean quantities.

Authors: Chantry, M; Thornes, T; Palmer, T; Duben, P

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Journal: Monthly Weather Review
• Volume: 147
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 645-655
• Publication date: 2019-01-25
• Acceptance date: 2019-01-25
• DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0308.1
• EISSN: 1520-0493
• ISSN: 0027-0644
• Keywords: climate models; numerical weather prediction/forecasting; optimization; ensembles; model evaluation/performance