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Testing Forecast Optimality under Unknown Loss.

Abstract:

Empirical tests of forecast optimality have traditionally been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss or some other known loss function. In this article we establish new testable properties that hold when the forecaster's loss function is unknown but testable restrictions can be imposed on the data-generating process, trading off conditions on the data-generating process against conditions on the loss function. We propose flexible estimation of the forecaster's loss functio...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1198/016214506000001176

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
Publisher:
American Statistical Association
Journal:
Journal of the American Statistical Association More from this journal
Volume:
102
Issue:
480
Pages:
1172 - 1184
Publication date:
2007-01-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0162-1459
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:cf321d44-28f2-4709-b937-7c0abbd9af17
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:12743
Deposit date:
2011-08-15

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