The missing poor

Journal article

Population censuses constitute the basis of public resource allocation and political representation in many countries. This paper shows that census forms commonly generate incentives for enumerators to disproportionately omit members of larger households. Using microdata from 254 censuses, we estimate that this leads to undercounting in 60% of censuses. Omission is concentrated in poor countries where 0.6% of the population is missing. Within countries, poor households are missing three times as many members as rich ones, leading to larger undercounts in poorer regions. We illustrate how this translates into systematic underfunding of public services and political underrepresentation in poor regions.

Authors: Figueiredo Walter, T; Moneke, N; Radu, A

• Publication status: Accepted
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Economic Association
• Journal: American Economic Review: Insights
• Acceptance date: 2026-04-01
• EISSN: 2640-2068
• ISSN: 2640-205X
• Language: English
• Keywords: census undercounting; enumerator incentives; equity; poverty