Implausible deniability and escalation in the gray zone

Journal article

As gray-zone conflict emerges as the global norm for strategic engagement, plausible and implausible deniability are increasingly critical to competition. States are thought to use deniability—obscuring information about which actors took which actions—in order to limit the extent to which they can be held accountable for their aggression in the international system. Using survey experiments among U.S. military cadets, we examine how two strategies of deniability common to the gray zone—cyber operations and proxy organizations—influence willingness to respond with the use of force. Scholars have debated whether these strategies are or are not escalatory. We instead argue that the use of strategies of deniability makes escalation more likely but also lowers the intensity of the escalation that occurs. Understanding how deniability operates in the gray zone will be increasingly significant as states continue to shift from traditional combat to an environment of strategic competition in the gray zone.

Authors: Sukin, L; Hedgecock, K

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• Journal: Security Studies
• Publication date: 2026-04-21
• Acceptance date: 2025-10-23
• DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2026.2616810
• EISSN: 1556-1852
• ISSN: 0963-6412
• Language: English