River channel change can affect flood hazard and impact substantially

Journal article

More than one billion people are exposed to flood risk globally, with this number projected to double by 2050. Global flood models underpin risk assessment and adaptation planning, yet typically assume that river bankfull capacity corresponds to a fixed two-year return period, neglecting spatial and temporal variability in channel characteristics. Here, we evaluate how inundated areas and population exposures respond when forced with empirically-derived bankfull capacities in the Mississippi basin using the Fathom Global Flood Model. We find that present-day bankfull flows generally correspond to return periods of less than one year, leading to systematic underestimation of flood extent (9–152%) and exposure (15–472%) across 5-, 20- and 100-year flood events, with the largest discrepancies for more frequent floods. We further show that historical changes in channel morphology can influence flood impacts at magnitudes comparable to projected climate change over multi-decadal timescales, depending on emission scenarios. Our work highlights a key structural limitation in current global flood modelling frameworks with implications for risk assessments.

Authors: Hawker, L; Darby, SE; Slater, L; Parsons, DR; Boothroyd, RJ

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Publication date: 2026-05-05
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03517-9
• EISSN: 2662-4435
• ISSN: 2662-4435
• Language: English
• Keywords: River flood; 100-year flood; Channel (broadcasting); Climate change; Flood risk assessment; Flood myth; Hydrology (agriculture); Population; Hazard