Journal article
Future changes in climate and hydroclimate extremes in East Africa
- Abstract:
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Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa and the impact is projected to increase in the future. To allow adaptation and mitigation of the impacts, we assessed the changes in climate and their impacts on hydrology and hydrological extremes in East Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP-6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 1981–2010 is used as a reference period. The output from GCMs are statistically downscaled using the Bias Correction-Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method to drive a high-resolution hydrological model. The Variable Infiltration Capacity and vector-based routing models are used to simulate runoff and streamflow across 68,300 river reaches in East Africa. The results show an increase in annual precipitation (up to 35%) in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya and a decrease (up to 4.5%) in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). During the long rainy season (March–May), precipitation is projected to be higher (up to 43%) than the reference period in Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda but lower (up to −20%) in Tanzania. Large parts of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Southern Ethiopia show an increase in precipitation (up to 38%) during the short rainy season (October–December). Temperature and evapotranspiration will continue to increase in the future. Further, annual and seasonal streamflow and hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are projected to increase in large parts of the region throughout the 21st century calling for site-specific adaptation.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 8.1MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1029/2022ef003011
Authors
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Journal:
- Earth's Future More from this journal
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 2
- Article number:
- e2022EF003011
- Publication date:
- 2023-02-07
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-01-18
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2328-4277
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1606751
- Local pid:
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pubs:1606751
- Deposit date:
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2025-06-06
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Gebrechorkos et al
- Copyright date:
- 2023
- Rights statement:
- © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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