Journal article
The costs of economic nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit experiment
- Abstract:
- Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 702.0KB, Terms of use)
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(Preview, Supplementary materials, pdf, 254.4KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1093/ej/uez020
Authors
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- Journal:
- Economic Journal More from this journal
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 623
- Pages:
- 2722–2744
- Publication date:
- 2019-05-30
- Acceptance date:
- 2019-05-23
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
1468-0297
- ISSN:
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0013-0133
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
pubs:1004560
- UUID:
-
uuid:c4d1f01a-c917-44c0-976a-f742a98ec6fe
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1004560
- Source identifiers:
-
1004560
- Deposit date:
-
2019-05-31
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Born et al
- Copyright date:
- 2019
- Rights statement:
- Copyright © The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Economic Society.
- Notes:
- This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Oxford University Press at https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez020
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