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Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance.

Abstract:
Although out-of-sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the "gold standard" of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald [Review of Economics and Statistics (1998), Vol. 80, pp. 621-628], who suggest that the good dynamic forecasts of their model support the efficiency-wage theory on which it is based.

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DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00146.x

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Journal:
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Volume:
67
Issue:
s1
Publication date:
2005-01-01
DOI:
URN:
uuid:c4b4b350-5cc8-4ec7-8a90-74c0cf7bd7b2
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11151
Language:
English

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